The Fixation of Belief

“Probably Peirce’s best-known works are the first two articles in a series of six that originally were collectively entitled Illustrations of the Logic of Science and published in Popular Science Monthly from November 1877 through August 1878. The first is entitled ‘The Fixation of Belief’ and the second is entitled ‘How to Make Our Ideas Clear.’ In the first of these papers Peirce defended, in a manner consistent with not accepting naive realism, the superiority of the scientific method over other methods of overcoming doubt and ‘fixing belief.’” — Robert Burch, “Charles Sanders Peirce,” entry in the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (2021 revision) “Pragmatist epistemologies often explore how we can carry out inquiries in a self-controlled and fruitful way. (Where much analytic epistemology centres around the concept of knowledge, considered as an idealised end-point of human thought, pragmatist epistemology centres around the concept of inquiry, considered as the process of knowledge-seeking and how we can improve it.) So pragmatists often provide rich accounts of the capacities or virtues that we must possess in order to inquire well, and the rules or guiding principles that we should adopt. A canonical account is Peirce’s classic early paper ‘The Fixation of Belief‘. Here Peirce states that inquiry is a struggle to replace doubt with “settled belief“, and that the only method of inquiry that can make sense of the fact that at least some of us are disturbed by inconsistent beliefs, and will subsequently reflect upon which methods of fixing belief are correct is the Method of Science, which draws on the Pragmatic Maxim described above. This contrasts with three other methods of fixing belief: i) refusing to consider evidence contrary to one’s favored beliefs (the Method of Tenacity), ii) accepting an institution’s dictates (the Method of Authority), iii) developing the most rationally coherent or elegant-seeming belief-set (the A Priori Method).“ — Catherine Legg, “Pragmatism,” entry in the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (2021 revision

Comparison of Two Detailed Models of Aedes aegypti Population Dynamics

The success of control programs for mosquito-­borne diseases can be enhanced by crucial information provided by models of the mosquito populations. Models, however, can differ in their structure, complexity, and biological assumptions, and these differences impact their predictions. Unfortunately, it is typically difficult to determine why two complex models make different predictions because we lack structured side-­by-­side comparisons of models using comparable parameterization. Here, we present a detailed comparison of two complex, spatially explicit, stochastic models of the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, the main vector of dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. Both models describe the mosquito?s biological and ecological characteristics, but differ in complexity and specific assumptions. We compare the predictions of these models in two selected climatic settings: a tropical and weakly seasonal climate in Iquitos, Peru, and a temperate and strongly seasonal climate in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Both models were calibrated to operate at identical average densities in unperturbedconditions in both settings, by adjusting parameters regulating densities in each model (number of larval development sites and amount of nutritional resources). We show that the models differ in their sensitivityto environmental conditions (temperature and rainfall) and trace differences to specific model assumptions.Temporal dynamics of the Ae. aegypti populations predicted by the two models differ more markedly under strongly seasonal Buenos Aires conditions. We use both models to simulate killing of larvae and/or adults with insecticides in selected areas. We show that predictions of population recovery by the models differ substantially, an effect likely related to model assumptions regarding larval development and (director delayed) density dependence. Our methodical comparison provides important guidance for model improvement by identifying key areas of Ae. aegypti ecology that substantially affect model predictions, and revealing the impact of model assumptions on population dynamics predictions in unperturbed and perturbed conditions.Fil: Legros, Mathieu. University of North Carolina; Estados UnidosFil: Otero, Marcelo Javier. Universidad de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Romeo Aznar, Victoria Teresa. Universidad de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Solari, Hernan Gustavo. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Física de Buenos Aires; ArgentinaFil: Gould, Fred. National Institutes of Health; Estados UnidosFil: Lloyd, Alun L.. National Institutes of Health; Estados Unido

Metacognition in human decision-making: confidence and error monitoring

People are capable of robust evaluations of their decisions: they are often aware of their mistakes even without explicit feedback, and report levels of confidence in their decisions that correlate with objective performance. These metacognitive abilities help people to avoid making the same mistakes twice, and to avoid overcommitting time or resources to decisions that are based on unreliable evidence. In this review, we consider progress in characterizing the neural and mechanistic basis of these related aspects of metacognition—confidence judgements and error monitoring—and identify crucial points of convergence between methods and theories in the two fields. This convergence suggests that common principles govern metacognitive judgements of confidence and accuracy; in particular, a shared reliance on post-decisional processing within the systems responsible for the initial decision. However, research in both fields has focused rather narrowly on simple, discrete decisions—reflecting the correspondingly restricted focus of current models of the decision process itself—raising doubts about the degree to which discovered principles will scale up to explain metacognitive evaluation of real-world decisions and actions that are fluid, temporally extended, and embedded in the broader context of evolving behavioural goals

Burst avalanches in solvable models of fibrous materials

We review limiting models for fracture in bundles of fibers, with statistically distributed thresholds for breakdown of individual fibers. During the breakdown process, avalanches consisting of simultaneous rupture of several fibers occur, and the distribution $D(\Delta)$ of the magnitude $\Delta$ of such avalanches is the central characteristics in our analysis. For a bundle of parallel fibers two limiting models of load sharing are studied and contrasted: the global model in which the load carried by a bursting fiber is equally distributed among the surviving members, and the local model in which the nearest surviving neighbors take up the load. For the global model we investigate in particular the conditions on the threshold distribution which would lead to anomalous behavior, i.e. deviations from the asymptotics $D(\Delta) \sim \Delta^{-5/2}$, known to be the generic behavior. For the local model no universal power-law asymptotics exists, but we show for a particular threshold distribution how the avalanche distribution can nevertheless be explicitly calculated in the large-bundle limit.Comment: 28 pages, RevTeX, 3 Postscript figure

The transformative potential of reflective diaries for elite English cricketers

The sport of cricket has a history of its players suffering from mental health issues. The psychological study of cricket and, in particular, the attendant demands of participating at an elite level has not previously received rigorous academic attention. This study explored ten elite male cricketers’ experiences of keeping a daily reflective diary for one month during the competitive season. The aim was to assess how valuable qualitative diaries are in this field. Participants were interviewed regarding their appraisal of the methodology as a self‐help tool that could assist coping with performance pressures and wider life challenges. Three outcomes were revealed: first, that diary keeping was an effective opportunity to reflect upon the past and enhance one’s self (both as an individual and a performer); second, that diary keeping acted as a form of release that allowed participants to progress; and third, that diary keeping allowed participants to discover personal patterns of success that increased the likeliness of optimum performance

Inductive learning spatial attention

This paper investigates the automatic induction of spatial attention from the visual observation of objects manipulated on a table top. In this work, space is represented in terms of a novel observer-object relative reference system, named Local Cardinal System, defined upon the local neighbourhood of objects on the table. We present results of applying the proposed methodology on five distinct scenarios involving the construction of spatial patterns of coloured blocks

Shear stress fluctuations in the granular liquid and solid phases

We report on experimentally observed shear stress fluctuations in both granular solid and fluid states, showing that they are non-Gaussian at low shear rates, reflecting the predominance of correlated structures (force chains) in the solidlike phase, which also exhibit finite rigidity to shear. Peaks in the rigidity and the stress distribution's skewness indicate that a change to the force-bearing mechanism occurs at the transition to fluid behaviour, which, it is shown, can be predicted from the behaviour of the stress at lower shear rates. In the fluid state stress is Gaussian distributed, suggesting that the central limit theorem holds. The fibre bundle model with random load sharing effectively reproduces the stress distribution at the yield point and also exhibits the exponential stress distribution anticipated from extant work on stress propagation in granular materials.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures, latex. Replacement adds journal reference and addresses referee comment